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Tortie Portfolio: 10/8/2006 Update
Friday, August 11, 2006

The portfolio had undergone quite some changes since the last update. PELIKAN which was bought on 20/7/2006 continued its upwards trend and was in the money soon. However, once it reached its resistance at RM3.20, it failed to break through again. The volume also shrunk. On the chart, it looks like forming a 'double top'. So our acting managing director decided to sell it for a chicken-feed profit, about 5.25%, not too bad actually.

The cash rich portfolio purchased BKAWAN, SCICOM and KOSSAN on 3/8/2006, 7/8/2006 and 7/8/2006 respectively. All intended for medium to long term holding, at least initially.

However, sensing that the market is wanting a correction badly, FEAR began to creep in. Seeing that both SCICOM and KOSSAN's price movement showing a weakness, our acting managing director sold them, again for a small profit.

MAYBULK is another story: the stock made a nice rally, with both price and volume breakout on 8/8/2006. The next morning, again, weakness in upwards movement was sensed. So, our acting managing director decided to take profit. 11.7%, not too bad. But that didn't stop our acting managing director from banging his head when the buying interest surged on that afternoon and pushed the price to RM2.40, which is the immediate resistance level, before closing at RM2.37. MAYBULK failed to break RM2.40 again on 10/8/2006, with slightly contracted volume. (The price reached RM2.42 very briefly in the morning, but retraced soon after that).

So, currently the portfolio is about 30% cash and 70% equity. Expecting market correction to come any time, we are likely to further increase the cash position. We don't really practise 'last in first out' policy; but BKAWAN could well be the next 'casualty' :)

Retrospectively, buying PBBANK-01 on 2/8/2006 could be a wrong timing. Should be more patient next time.


posted by winpulse @ 1:53 PM, ,




Tortie Portfolio : Atypical 'Head and Shoulder'

While monitoring the share price movement of Maybulk, I noticed an atypical

'head and shoulder' pattern of the stock which was formed early this year.



From February to March, it looks like a 'failed head and shoulder' which was unable to
break through the neck line. That resulted in the subsequent 'second head' (?) (Any
better suggestion?) in April. However, the neck line was broken on 19.4.2006, the very
ex-date of the fat dividend. And the subsequent decline corresponded quite well with the
predicted range (Well, textbooks say 'at least', but you can not expect real life to be so
mechanical, right?) The whole 'thing' took 4 months to complete, followed immediately by

a healthy rebound and recovery. This is fair to a good stock like Maybulk.

I think this is an interesting case study for technical analysis. Everybody with slightest
knowledge of technical analysis knows 'head and shoulder' (not that anti-dandruff shampoo).
But recognition in the real life could be a challenge. Some might not agree that it was a
variance of ''head and shoulder', some might agree with me. The point is, whether one can
see the pattern and use that recognition to correctly predict the subsequent price movement? That's the whole idea of Technical Analysis, right? :)

Happy trading.

posted by winpulse @ 1:49 PM, ,




Tortie Portfolio Review: 28.7.2006
Monday, July 31, 2006

Our acting managing director sold half of tortie's position on 17.7.2006, wrong move!
On hind sight, the best day to sell, if wanted to sell at all, was 13.7.2006; the second best day to sell would had been 14.7.2006. And the worst day to sell...17.7.2006

The loss was not that great in abosulte term, the realised loss was RM960.51. If we take into account the RM750 capital repayment from BJTOTO, the actual loss was RM210.51. But the 'hidden' opportunity cost was greater! Just to quote one example. PBBANK-01 which was bought at RM6.20 and sold at RM6.35, is at RM6.65 level now. And Winpulse is still bullish on PBB. The question now is, when will be the right time to buy it again? Wait for correction? Headache for our acting managing director.

Subsequently, after the panic had settled, Tortie bought Pelikan on 20/7/2006 at RM2.96 and CYMAO at RM0.955 at 21/7/2006. Cash balance is RM13791.81 at this moment. Tortie may increase exposure to SUIWAH, and may repurchase PBB.

To date, the portfolio value is RM50451.81, a mere 0.9% gain. A dissappointing underperformance. Let's hope for a better tomorrow :)



posted by winpulse @ 10:20 AM, ,




Tortie Portfolio: Plenitu - 11July2006
Thursday, July 13, 2006

PLENITU (5075) closed high at RM1.49 today, achieving a stunning 22% half year gain. Its highest price on 2006 was RM1.72 on the 3/5/2006, which was a nice-looking market condition before the global market adjustment. Follow by the correction, PLENITU dropped to RM1.33 and then has bounced back and still at its uptrend now.

Despite the RHB research today has downgraded call for PLENITU from BUY to HOLD based on the underweight stance and expectation on an imminent economic slowdown in 2007, we still maintain our BUY call for medium and long term. The reason is simple: strong balance sheet (RNAV of RM4.21, PE of 4, healthy EPS growth), attractive cash-in-hand (RM0.44/share) and enormous land bank (can keep the company busy for next 10-15 years).


Yesterday, PLENITU has just acquired RM25.96m worth of land at Pulau Penang. We see this as a proof that PLENITU is still keep on its strategy of accumulating land banks for future development. With a huge land bank, the future profits should be more guaranteed and sustainable. Based on the RHB research, due to its previous abandon status, the land was sold at 13% cheaper than the estimated market value. Moreover, PLENITU will not assume any liabilities from the previous project. This land is definitely a good buy.

Therefore, despite the wet blanket put by some pessimist saying that the economic will slump next year, we still maintain our BUY call for medium and long term.

posted by winpulse @ 12:46 PM, ,




Bunnie Porfolio: 4th of July 2006
Wednesday, July 05, 2006

The construction of the Bunnie portfolio was completed on 4th July 2006. Another easy date to remember, as 4th of July is the Independent Day of USA. Tom Cruise starred in a movie called "Born on 4th of July" in 1988 and received his first nomination for Oscar. Bunnie was construction with the aim of getting award too: not academic, but financial. Maybank-CA is the best performer to date, followed by JAKS. GTRONIC and LEADER are gaining as well. MIDF was bought on the 4th of July. Hopefully the Bunnie can help WINPULSE achieve independence, financially of course.












BUNNIE (Started at RM20,000 AT 6/6/06) (4/7/2006)

COUNTER DATE PURCHASED PR AMOUNT
TOTAL BALANCE MKT PRICE PROFIT/
LOSS
1 GTRONIC 6/6/2006 0.30 10000
3016.80 10000 0.32 183.2
2 MAYBANK-CA 20/6/2006 1.04 3000
3138.35 3000 1.13 251.65
3 LEADER 22/6/2006 0.395 10000
3972.17 10000 0.405 77.83
4 JAKS 22/6/2006 0.525 10000
5280.15 10000 0.545 169.85
5 MIDF 4/7/2006 1.00 4000
4022.40 4000 1.00 -22.4














TOTAL
19429.87

660.13



CASH BALANCE
570.13

3.30%

posted by winpulse @ 2:39 PM, ,




Investment - 4 - Dummies: STAOW & Investment Part I: Rule Number One
Monday, July 03, 2006

I don't know if Warren Buffet had ever studied Sun-Tze Art of War. But his key saying of
"Rule number one, Never Lose Money" immediately reminded me of Sun-Tze's saying:

For those who can't read Chinese, here's the translation by LIONEL GILES, M.A. (1910):

1. Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.

2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

3. Thus the good fighter is able to secure himself against defeat, but cannot make certain of defeating the enemy.

4. Hence the saying: One may know how to conquer without being able to do it.

So, whether it was Warren Buffet who learned from the ancient wisdom, or it was great minds think alike, the number one rule still rules: Don't lose money!

If you are still not convinced, let's look at another time-honoured principle from an ancient profession: medicine. "Primum non nocere", ok, I am no expert in latin, but according to the reliable source, it translate to English as "first, do no harm". Nope, it wasn't come from the Hippocratic Oath; and yes, medical intervention can cause harm. Just like war can cause defeat, and investment can cause loss.

So, before embarking on any investment, remember rule number one.

And don't forget rule number two as well :)


posted by winpulse @ 9:01 AM, ,




Bunnie Portfolio: Maybank-CA or Maybank-CB?

Ex-Price Mkt Pr Maybank Pr
Maybank-CA 9.70 1.10 10.60
Maybank-CB 10.00 0.55 10.60

At a glance, Maybank-CB appears to offer a gearing of >20, which is double that of CA.
However, it is more likely to be an illusion.

Let's consider the 'what-if' situation of various Maybank prices and calculate the value of the options.
Premiums are ignored to simplify the calculation.


From the table, it appears that Maybank-CB offers slightly better return only when Maybank's price is more than RM12.00.
Given the short expiry date of both warrants, WINPULSE is of opinion that Maybank-CA is the better choice.

posted by winpulse @ 8:49 AM, ,